MEHAR BEDI
Image Courtesy: Council on Foreign Relations
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, is an agreement between Iran, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States) and Germany on the Iranian nuclear program. They reached this agreement on the 14th of July 2015. Through this deal, Iran decided to reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98%, thereby dismantling a good chunk of its nuclear program. In return, billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief were guaranteed to Iran. The reasons for entering into such an agreement were carefully planned out by U.S. intelligence officials. They believed that if such an agreement was not in the picture, Iran would be able to make nuclear material needed for weapons in a very short time, which would increase tensions between Iran and the U.S.
Another agreement had been in the works since 1970, known as the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, under which Iran had agreed to stop the development of nuclear material. This agreement, however, fell through due to the defeat of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979. Since the election of President Hassan Rouhani in 2013, things had started to look better on this front and the JCPOA was finalized. Along with the reduction of the uranium stockpile, Iran had also agreed to implement, with time, a protocol allowing IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors access to the nuclear facilities in Iran in an attempt to prevent the possibility of nuclear material development in secret.
In 2017, President Trump accused Iran of violating the spirit of the deal and declined from making the certification that was required under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. In 2018, he finally withdrew from the deal and ordered the reinstatement of harsher sanctions via a Presidential Memorandum. As a result of this withdrawal, there was a significant drop in the Iranian rial (currency). In 2019, Iran reacted to this withdrawal by announcing the suspension of the implementation of some parts of the JCPOA and as a result, launched rockets at the military targets in Israel. They announced that further action would be taken if protection from U.S. sanctions was not guaranteed to them. Soon to follow was Iran’s declaration to increase its stockpile of uranium beyond the agreed limit of 3.67%. Clearly, under Donald Trump’s administration, the deal had collapsed and the situation between Iran and the United States had turned bitter.
With the election of President Joe Biden in 2021, the situation was expected to change for the better. The Biden administration officially declared to return to the Iran nuclear deal, given that Iran agrees to comply with its terms. However, on the other hand, stood Tehran’s demand for the United States to return to the agreement and to lift the harsh sanctions that were imposed on Iran. There, however, exists another problem in the current scenario. Iran is to elect a new President in June 2021. President Hassan Rouhani has been the President for two consecutive terms and according to the law, cannot be elected for a third. At the present moment, electing a moderate President like President Rouhani does not seem like a possibility for Iran, and thus, the best bet for the Biden administration here is to re-enter into the nuclear deal till the time President Rouhani remains in office. There is a possibility for Iran to have a more anti- American leader post June 2021. Henry Rome, a regional analyst of the Eurasia Group declared that the Biden Presidency is planning to make an initial gesture to Iran in an attempt to return to the JCPOA.
Saudi Arabia acted as the counterweight against Iran under the Trump administration, and a U.S. $110 billion defence deal was signed between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia also assembled representatives of other Muslim states when Trump declared Iran to be the main threat to the Middle East. President Joe Biden made it clear to Saudi Arabia to not expect any unconditional support from the United States. Biden has agreed to enter into negotiations with the Iranian government in addition to agreeing to restore U.N. sanctions on Iran and ease travel restrictions on Iranian diplomats posted in the United States. However, Iran continues to hold a firm stance to accept nothing less than a complete lifting of sanctions imposed by Trump. Further, Iran has also threatened to suspend the agreement with the U.S. under which the latter could inspect the declared nuclear sites in Iran. As a result, Iran denied cooperation to the international inspectors and declared to continue this strategy if sanctions were not completely lifted.
This has tied the Biden administration in a knot. They can either not remove the sanctions completely and risk losing the upper hand vis-a-vis inspections in Iran or remove the sanctions and risk Tehran’s irrevocable withdrawal from the deal.
The Iran nuclear deal is of major importance in the relationship between United States and the Middle East. The steps taken by Donald Trump have left this deal quite wounded. Naturally, the Biden administration would also want the deal to continue playing its part in the relationship between the Middle East and the United States, but given the circumstances, and the way both Iran and the U.S. are dealing with the situation, it seems like a distant dream.
References:
2) https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/19/jcpoa-bidens-return-to-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-getting-harder.html
The views expressed and suggestions made in the articles are solely of the authors in their personal capacity and the Center for Middle East Studies and O.P. Jindal Global University do not endorse the same.